Rome, Italy December 29014
More Migrants in U.S. and Other Wealthy Countries;
More Money to Middle-Income Countries
More Money to Middle-Income Countries
Patterns of global migration and remittances have shifted in
recent decades, even as both the number of immigrants and the amount of money
they send home have grown, according to a new Pew Research Center analysis of
data from the United Nations and the World Bank.
A rising share of international migrants now lives in today’s
high-income countries such as the United States and Germany, while a growing
share was born in today’s middle-income nations such as India and Mexico, the
analysis finds.
These shifts occurred as
the total number of international migrants rose from 154 million in 1990 to 232
million in 2013 – but remained steady as a 3% share of the globe’s growing
population.
During this period, the U.S. remained the largest destination
country by far and increased its share of the world’s migrants. One-in-five (46
million) migrants now live in the U.S., compared with slightly less than
one-in-six (23 million) in 1990.
The U.S. is not the only wealthy destination country whose share
of the world’s migrants has increased. All told, an estimated 160 million, or
69%, of international migrants now live in high-income countries (nations with
an average per capita income of $12,616 or higher), up from 87 million, or 57%,
in 1990, the Pew Research analysis finds. These high-income countries, many of
them in North America and Europe, may appear increasingly attractive to modern
migrants, whose principal reason for moving is to pursue economic opportunity.
Where do today’s migrants
come from? Increasingly, they were born in what the World Bank designates as
middle-income countries, those with per capita annual income between $1,036 and
$12,615. About six-in-ten (135 million) of today’s international migrants were
born in such countries, compared with fewer than half (74 million) of all
migrants in 1990. Over the same period, the share of immigrants born in high-
as well as low-income nations has declined.1
Once they move across
borders, many migrants send money, known as remittances, back to families in
their countries of origin. Despite a marked dip during the 2009 global
recession, the overall annual flow of such remittances has nearly tripled since
2000 and now tops $500 billion.2
And according to the Pew
Research analysis of World Bank data, the rise in the stock of emigrants from middle-income
countries has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in the flows of
remittances back to middle-income countries.
The economic importance of
remittances is larger in poorer countries than in richer ones. Remittances
account for 8% of the gross domestic product in low-income nations, 2% in
middle-income nations and less than 1% in high-income nations, according to
analysis of World Bank data. Total remittances to low- and middle-income
nations are nearly three times the amount of foreign aid to those countries,
the World Bank says. Since 2009, the World Bank has recognized the importance
of remittances by including them in its measure of creditworthiness, allowing
nations with high remittance levels to borrow more money than they otherwise
could.
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The shifting patterns in
the flows of both migrants and remittances have a regional as well as economic
dimension. The Middle East and North America have grown as destination regions
of international migrants from 1990 to 2013, as have several Western European
countries. A smaller share of international migrants lives in Asia in 2013 than
three decades ago. Meanwhile, the shares of international migrants living in
sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America have not changed markedly.
Although policy and geography are important factors in changing
patterns of migration, migration researchers often cite economics to explain
migration trends. The pattern of migrants increasingly living in today’s
high-income countries but coming from middle-income nations reflects broader
changes in the global economy. As free trade agreements for goods and services
increased between middle- and high-income countries, so has the movement of
people. Moreover, as the human capital and economic aspirations of people in
middle-income countries have grown during the past quarter century, more of
them have been able to take advantage of opportunities in high-income
countries. By contrast, people living in lower-income countries may want to
move but most do not have the resources to undertake the journey.
Despite global shifts in international migration, one constant
remains: The U.S. has the world’s largest number of international migrants.
The number of immigrants in the U.S. doubled from 23 million
people in 1990 to 46 million in 2013. During this time, no other country has
come close to the number of foreign-born people living within its borders. For
example, second-ranked Russia had about 11 million immigrants in both 1990 and
2013 (many of whom had moved within the former USSR prior to 1990).
Consequently, the U.S. has bolstered its lead in the number of international
migrants, doubling second-place Russia in 1990 and quadrupling it by 2013.
The U.S. has also become a major recipient of migrants from key
countries with large numbers of emigrants. Although the U.S. was not a leading
destination of migrants born in top origin countries in 1990, things have
changed considerably in a quarter century. By 2013, nearly 1-in-6 (2.1 million)
migrants born in India—the top country of birth for international migrants in
2013–lived in the U.S. Almost the entirety of the 13 million migrants born in
Mexico–the second highest country of birth for international migrants in
2013—also lived in the U.S.
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Even with this growth, the
foreign born as a share of the total population is still considerably lower in
the U.S. than in a number of other major destination nations. About 14% of the
U.S. population in 2013 was foreign born, a smaller share than in Australia
(28%) and Canada (21%), and significantly less than in some countries in the
Persian Gulf, where the vast majorities of their populations are foreign-born
workers.
In fact, the regional origins of U.S. immigrants have become more
concentrated over time with a greater share born in Latin America and the
Caribbean. About 47% of all migrants living in the U.S. in 1990 were from Latin
American and Caribbean countries. By 2013, 55% of all foreign-born people
living in the U.S. were born in the same region.
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The U.S. receives many more
migrants than it sends. Nonetheless, nearly 3 million Americans lived outside
of the U.S. in 2013, up from 1.8 million in 1990.
Compared with other origin countries, the U.S. is a relatively
small source of international migrants. The U.S. ranks 20th in the list of top
origin countries of international migrants, far behind world leaders such as
India, Mexico and China, which together comprised about 16 million migrants in
1990 and nearly 37 million migrants in 2013.
The U.S. also has a significantly lower rate of emigration than
most countries. For example, about 1% of Americans currently live outside of
their country of birth, compared with about 20% of people born in several
Eastern Europe countries and more than 4% of people born in countries such as
the United Kingdom and Canada.
Chapter 2 of the report looks
at the share and number of international migrants in national and regional
destinations, as well as trends from 1990 to 2013. Chapter 3 looks at the origin
countries of international migrants and trends from 1990 to 2013. Chapter 4 looks at global
trends in remittances and compares patterns in receiving nations by income
category. Additional information is provided in Appendix A: Methodology and Appendix B, which lists countries
included in the World Bank’s high-, middle- and low-income nation categories. Appendix C lists countries by
their regional classification.
This report examines trends
in international migrant population from 1990 to 2013 and in international
remittance flows from 2000 to 2013. The migration estimates in this report
refer to the total number (or cumulative “stocks”) of migrants living around
the world rather than to the annual rate of migration (or current “flows”).
Migration and remittance patterns are analyzed for groups of low-, middle- and
high-income nations, using World Bank categories; migration patterns also are
analyzed for regions and individual nations. Analysis is based on migration
stock data from the United
Nations and migrant remittance data from the World
Bank.
Research associate Phillip Connor wrote the overview and migration
sections of this report; senior writer D’Vera Cohn wrote the section on
remittances, based on the analysis of research associate Ana Gonzalez-Barrera.
Editorial guidance was provided by Paul Taylor, executive vice president of the
Pew Research Center; Michael Dimock, director of the Pew Research Center for
the People & the Press; Jeffrey S. Passel, senior demographer; and James
Bell, director of international survey research. Anne Shi, research associate,
number-checked the report. Eileen Patten, research analyst, formatted the
report. Marcia Kramer of Kramer Editing Services copy-edited the report.
“International migrants,” as defined by the United Nations, are
those living for one year or longer in a country other than the one in which
they were born. Thus, many foreign workers and international students are
counted as migrants, as are refugees and, in some cases, their descendants.
Total migrant stock includes unauthorized or illegal immigrants living in
various countries.
The economic classification of countries used in this report
follows the World Bank’s categories of low-, middle- and high-income countries
based on per capita, global national income (GNI) in U.S. dollars. GNI cut
points separating low-, middle-, and high-income countries are based on World
Bank lending rules. The country classifications in this report use 2013 country
groups; however, further comparisons using the World Bank’s country groups in
1990 produce similar patterns. For a listing of countries by their economic classification,
see Appendix B.
“Remittances” are funds or other assets sent to their home
countries by migrants, either themselves or in the form of compensation (wages)
for border, short-term and seasonal employees. The World Bank reports only
remittances sent via formal channels, such as banks and other businesses that
transfer money.
This report uses international migrant data published by the U.N.,
which classifies migrants born in territories such as Puerto Rico (a U.S.
territory) or Guadeloupe (a French territory) living in the U.S. (born in
Puerto Rico) or France (born in Guadeloupe) as international migrants.
Similarly, U.N. international migrant data consider people born in one of the
50 U.S. states and living in a U.S. territory as international migrants. U.S.
territories (including Puerto Rico) are part of the United States, and those
born in U.S. territories are U.S. citizens by birth. Migrants from U.S.
territories living in the U.S. are not classified as international migrants in
foreign-born population estimates published by the U.S. Census Bureau or the
Pew Research Center’s Hispanic Trends Project.
1.
Readers should note that the number
of middle-income nations and the populations living in them have increased
since 1990—for example, the populous nations of China and India have joined the
list of middle-income nations—so some growth in emigration from those nations
and remittances to them would be expected. But the findings in this report are
valid even when adjusting for that growth. The emigrant population born in
middle-income nations grew 73% between 1990 and 2010, more than the 31%
population growth in those countries.
2.
Because of a change in the World
Bank’s definition of remittances, there is discontinuity in data for 2004 and
2005. The change resulted in a somewhat lower level of overall remittances in
2005 than would otherwise have been the case. See the methodology for more
details. Nonetheless, overall patterns are similar regardless of whether the
new definition is used. ↩
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